Biden COVID-19 advisory board member Dr. Celine Gounder on tackling the virus Druke spoke about the website’s signature election models, which are derived from the polling data. By ARIELLA SHUA That’s basically it.”. She wanted a deeper understanding of how political polls model public sentiment. Watch or listen to the U.S. Senate's impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump. Partying during a pandemic? Polling average from RealClearPolitics, a competitor website to FiveThirtyEight that aggregates polling data, shows that support for Trump never went beyond the 40% to 44% range in the past six months. Since the 2016 presidential election, podcasts about politics have sprouted faster than DIY YouTube videos. He noted that he himself did not predict Trump to win despite the fact that he knew intellectually that it could happen. How do I know these polls won’t be off?”. I'm based in New York City. Galen Druke is the host and producer of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke, of the election statistics website FiveThirtyEight, described Texas as a “majority-minority” state that is ripe for the Democrats in 2020. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to […] The likelihood of the outcomes resulting from the polls, however, are less well understood. “I look at [political elections] from a very policy-heavy perspective, and also how they appear in the media. By Galen Druke. Both Cohen and Druke stated there was nothing to add to the current model that would improve it. Pitch us or join us for a graduate degree in the Media Innovation program at Northeastern University’s School of Journalism. Vice President Joe Biden’s polling fluctuated between 47% and 52%, maintaining a fairly stable lead over the president. Please note All comments are eligible for publication in The News-Letter. Hopkins can afford it. Biographical information last updated on July 8, 2014 - 7:30pm. FiveThirtyEight was founded in 2008 by statistician Nate Silver. Related Websites: Central Time. "Texas may be a southern state, it may be a republican state, but it’s highly urbanised,” Mr Druke said in a recent podcast. | October 18, 2020. Junior Leland Held, vice president of faculty outreach for PSSC, moderated the event. Tophoff praised the decision to bring Cohen and Druke to speak. It then averages the polls together to determine its polling average for national popular vote and individual state races. Featured In. By Galen Druke More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS On Thursday, House impeachment managers finished laying out their argument for why former President Donald Trump should be convicted by the Senate for inciting an insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Druke added that some pollsters in 2016 did not properly weigh their polls by education in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, creating a skew in the Democrats’ favor. Published by the Students of Johns Hopkins since 1896, University lifts gathering ban and implements five-person limit, HERO resumes operations for the spring semester, In-person activities ban extended as three partygoers face expulsion, The Buccaneers' innovative game plan helped them win Super Bowl LV, As in-person classes resume (again), we must do better, Natasha Trethewey explores the power of poetic metaphor, Experiencing "quarantine walking" in Baltimore. Sign up now! Behind the scenes with Galen Druke and FiveThirtyEight’s Politics podcast. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss how the parties are already campaigning in Georgia’s Senate runoffs. Howard Dean's Scream, Revisited Friday, February 05, 2016 . Posted: September 3rd, 2015 | By: Galen Druke Professor Kami Chavis Simmons talked on Wisconsin Public Radio about the role of body cameras in communities on Thursday, Sept. 3. For questions or comments about our programming, contact WPR’s Audience Services at 1-800-747-7444, email to listener@wpr.org or use our Listener Feedback form. The website features articles and podcasts analyzing political poll averages, including forecasts for presidential and congressional elections. Galen Druke is a podcast producer and reporter at ABC News's FiveThirtyEight. He was an intern at WYPR, Baltimore’s local public radio station, where he said he got his first experience in journalism that eventually led him to work for FiveThirtyEight. Druke explained that the pandemic has damaged Trump’s political outlooks, but most external factors have done little to change the polls. Druke also is a Hopkins alum who graduated from the Krieger School of Arts and Sciences in 2012. Cohen added that the model does not account for any attempts to manipulate the vote or reshape the rules of the election. For technical questions or comments about WPR’s website, streaming or other digital media products, please use our Website Feedback form. The value of polling is important for campaign officials and understanding how to run a campaign. In an interview with Capital Newspapers, FiveThirtyEight podcast producer Galen Druke described packing as “taking one party’s members and concentrating them in … Though Jain appreciates FiveThirtyEight’s polling analysis, she stated that polls do not sway her political opinion. Cohen and Druke noted that polling has been relatively stable in 2020. Watch | Listen. I don’t really look at the more logistical part of it — the numbers, the statistics, the polling.”. Junior Leland Held, vice president of faculty outreach for PSSC, moderated the event. In an episode released shortly after the 2020 election, for example, host Galen Druke interviews J. Ann Selzer, who runs Iowa polls for the Des Moines Register. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. FiveThirtyEight’s presidential election forecast gives Democratic candidate Biden an 87% chance to win the election as of this writing. It helps people understand uncertainty in ways that they can’t with the other ways we cover elections.”. ... Dong Wang is an associate professor from the Department of Mathematics at the National University of Singapore (NUS). Wausau held its second annual LGBT pride event on Sunday, which was created last year after a local alderman encouraged members of the community to boycott a planned gay pride parade. Ohio Governor John Kasich addressed a crowd of mostly Fordham University students on Thursday. Cohen, a former reporter at the New York Times, is the managing editor of FiveThirtyEight. Posted: September 3rd, 2015 | By: Galen Druke Professor Kami Chavis Simmons talked on Wisconsin Public Radio about the role of body cameras in communities on Thursday, Sept. 3. FiveThirtyEight was founded in 2008 by statistician Nate Silver. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. The Political Science Steering Committee (PSSC) at Hopkins hosted Galen Druke, a Hopkins alum, and Micah Cohen of the political analysis website FiveThirtyEight on Oct. 13. And it’s cool that one [speaker] was a Hopkins alum.”. “They’re helping us understand the news. “In our forecast we show bands that fall within an 80% likelihood, such as with the popular vote forecast,” Druke said. “We also show the different outcomes that could result from the data of the polls. Two, people of color. In this installment of Model Talk, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the latest movements in the 2020 election forecasts. “An election model is just a set of rules set down in advance that govern how we take in and interpret data,” he said. Even after party reformers succeeded in implementing primaries in about a dozen states in the early 1900s, they didn't directly influence who the nominees would be. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners. FiveThirtyEight rates pollsters according to factors such as partisan bias and polling method. Central Time Mon, 12/16/2013 - 10:46am: ... a service of the Wisconsin Educational Communications Board and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Galen Druke is a podcast producer and reporter at ABC News's FiveThirtyEight. Cohen explained that the website had written articles prior to the 2016 election warning voters that Trump was only a polling error behind. “I went because polls were so off last time,” she said. Graduate students need financial support. Join the Institute of Politics for reflections on Super Tuesday results and where the 2020 campaign goes from here with Mike Allen, Co-Founder, Axios, Tiffany Cross, IOP Spring 2020 Resident Fellow, Co-Founder and Managing Editor, The Beat DC, Galen Druke, Podcast Producer and Reporter, FiveThirtyEight moderated by Margaret Talev, Politics and White House Editor, Axios, IOP “Pollsters often have a hard time reaching various groups of people,” he said. I don’t know how useful it is for the average voter.”. Named after the number of electors in the U.S. I love people and asking questions. View the profiles of professionals named "Galen" on LinkedIn. This time, Galen Druke tells us if we’re seeing a post-convention bounce for either candidate. There are 7,000+ professionals named "Galen", who use LinkedIn to exchange information, ideas, and opportunities. They have since made adjustments to their methods. Druke is the producer and host of its podcast. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight’s model showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton to have a 71% chance of winning the election. “I’m glad they’re doing these kinds of things,” she said. Many depend on polling data to provide a mental shortcut in understanding the political environment. Another forecast update from FiveThirtyEight. However, several states predicted to swing in Clinton’s favor went to Republican candidate and eventual winner Donald Trump. Cohen discussed the forecast model, one of the website’s most popular features, as a tool that helps people more accurately understand the results of upcoming elections. View the profiles of people named Galen Druke. Cohen and Druke explained that people have a difficult time understanding the implications of polls. Not worth it. Galen Druke is a podcast producer and reporter at ABC News's FiveThirtyEight. Senior Nina Tophoff occasionally checks FiveThirtyEight and receives regular polling updates from the New York Times. “One is non-college-educated people. — Galen Druke, FiveThirtyEight. His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, FiveThirtyEight, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio, and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION. “The model looks at public opinion, looks at the economy, looks at whether the president is an incumbent or not. Join Facebook to connect with Galen Druke and others you may know. The Trump Administration has contributed to growth in unexpected areas such as Twitter fatigue, fake news red alerts, and news and political podcasts. Junior Riya Jain attended the session to better understand the role polls play in politics. An audio documentary examining President Obama's "A More Perfect Union" speech and the events that led to it. Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. discuss how the parties are already campaigning in Georgia’s Senate runoffs. Electoral College, the organization is known for its political polling models and data-driven analysis. Three, younger people.”. Biographical information last updated on July 8, 2014 - 7:30pm. Chris H. Park contributed reporting to this article. At the most recent podcast from FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the discrepancies between national, state and district-level polls. When the two political sides meet on network or cable TV away from the sanctity of their […] The Political Science Steering Committee (PSSC) at Hopkins hosted Galen Druke, a Hopkins alum, and Micah Cohen of the political analysis website FiveThirtyEight on Oct. 13. Julia Azari is an associate professor of political science at Marquette Producer/Director. YouTube users who claim to be in the class reported that they had done "all sorts of things" to … “The better thing to do is, look at my model and consider: Does it make sense in the real world?” Cohen said. His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, FiveThirtyEight, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio, and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION. Programming descriptions are generated by participants and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of SXSW. “I don't choose who I vote based on the polls,” she said. GALEN DRUKE That's Wayne Steger, political science professor at DePaul University. He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series “The Gerrymandering Project.” His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge’s ELECTION podcast. “How do I know what I’m seeing is what’s happening? “It’s one of the biggest problems, where people look at the polling and see who the front runner is and decide their vote isn’t worth it. Comment. Galen Druke. Keep updated on the latest news and information. Wisconsin Life: A Love/Hate Relationship With Winter, Wisconsin Educational Communications Board. October 30, 2018 October 30, 2018 Meredith Dietz Behind the scenes, Insights. © 2021 by Wisconsin Public Radio, a service of the Wisconsin Educational Communications Board and the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “I spend a lot of time looking at the debates, looking at the candidates,” she said. Micah Cohen and Hopkins alum Galen Druke explained the mechanics of FiveThirtyEight's election forecasting model.